Insight paper

How should leaders navigate uncertainty?

In an increasingly uncertain world, we need to embrace uncertainty, rather than shy away. But how? 

The smartest leaders learn to tolerate the uncertainty, provide a healthy blend of stability and agility for their teams, and adopt productive strategies to move forward. In other words, they embrace rather than resist. 
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Navigating uncertainty

Contents
In our latest paper, we cover:
  1. Unpacking uncertainty
  2. Human impact
  3. Organisational impact
  4. Embracing uncertainty
  5. Getting started – practical tips
  6. Resources
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This insight paper summarises the very latest research into the nature of uncertainty, its impact on us as humans and organisations, and introduces a brand new evidence-based framework for leaders to use
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EMBRACE Model
Our ‘EMBRACE’ model succinctly captures seven proven strategies for leaders to employ to better tolerate, navigate and embrace uncertainty.
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1.    The shifting landscape of uncertainty

Rapid digital transformation, the geopolitical landscape, economic uncertainty, climate change, and societal shifts are combining to destabilize every aspect of our lives and not least, our work.

“Something massive and potentially overwhelming is happening. All of our systems, from global webs of trade and information to the personal connections we have with our friends, families, and colleagues, all of these systems are changing, will have to change” (Cascio, 2020)

You may have heard the term ’VUCA’ (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) to describe the uncertain world we live in, but some suggest it is no longer sufficient. Futurist Jamais Cascio developed the BANI model to better describe the nuanced complexities of our modern world, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

  • Brittle: Systems can give the illusion of being strong but are prone to sudden, catastrophic failure due to their lack of resilience and dependence on single points of failure, which can lead to widespread collapse of interconnected systems.

  • Anxious: A constant state of unease or stress due to overwhelming information, rapid changes, or unpredictable threats. This anxiety affects decision-making and organisational morale.

  • Non-linear: In a nonlinear world, small actions can lead to massive, disproportionate consequences due to hidden delays and complex interactions, as seen in crises like COVID-19 and climate change. It makes planning and prediction challenging.

  • Incomprehensible: Scenarios that defy understanding due to their complexity, illogical or senseless nature, or a sheer volume of data can lead to paralysis or flawed decisions. 

With this new / shifting reality, our old ways of coping are likely to be insufficient. By better understanding the nature and impact of uncertainty we lay the foundations for being able to navigate through it and move forward.  
 

Types of uncertainty 

Uncertainty is in essence a state of not knowing – whether it is economic, strategic, accounting, market, personal, social, or environmental. Whatever the context, feeling uncertain is an uncomfortable experience for all humans and organisations, especially leaders. 


Uncertainty is the state of being unsure or lacking complete knowledge about an outcome or circumstance.

But, not all uncertain situations are the same. The latest research shows uncertainty can be several types / have different features. Considering the five dimensions below can help characterise the type of the uncertainty you are experiencing. 

 

What is the nature / type of the uncertainty you are experiencing?
Internal or external

  • Where is the uncertainty coming from – the leader or the context? 

  • “I am uncertain” versus “it is uncertain”
Objective or subjective

  • Is the uncertainty about measurable factors or perspective / beliefs? 

  • “The data is unclear” versus “I’m unsure of the right thing to do” 
Risk or ambiguity 

  • Are we dealing in known or unknown probabilities? 

  • "The probability of a particular outcome is uncertain" or "the nature of this situation as a whole is uncertain" 
Resolvable or radical

  • Is the lack of knowledge resolvable or not? 

  • “The unknowns will eventually be clarified” or “the unknowns will remain unresolved and unpredictable”
Short term or prolonged

  • What is the duration and how clear is any end point? 

  • E.g. waiting for a job interview outcome as opposed to living with chronic illness or ongoing political unrest.

 

Understanding the characteristics of uncertainty you are experiencing can help you choose a suitable strategy to move forward.

 

2. The human impact of uncertainty

Our brain and bodies are programmed to seek predictability, control, and balance. When confronted with uncertainty, they can go into overdrive – effecting our emotions, physiology, mental health, and ability to think. Sufficient certainty and/or agency is a fundamental human need. Without it, our potential for health, wellbeing, and fulfilment is diminished. 

Explore our full insight paper on uncertainty.

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Learn more about the organisation impact of uncertainty and the proven strategies for leaders and teams.
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